December 2012 has been the month with one of the lowest growth rates (GR) in the Indian pharmaceutical market (IPM) in a long period of time, if we ignore the low growth of November 2012 to Diwali effect. The year 2012 started with a bang (Jan-Mar 18.7 per cent GR) and ended on a whimper (Oct-Dec 9.1 per cent GR). The trend of Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 – 18.7 per cent, 16.9 per cent, 13.5 per cent and 9.1 per cent respectively – definitely points to a slow-down, although it does not seem as drastic as the last quarter suggests.
While the entire industry will analyse the data on what caused this slowdown, there are some trends which are being reported / discussed, including generics acquiring bigger share, slowdown in new patient detection in chronic therapies, as well as subdued seasonal anti-infective market due to lower respiratory infections compared to prior period.
Amongst the top 25 corporates for December 12 showing high GR are Sun – 17.3 per cent, Zydus-Biochem – 16.2 per cent, Mankind – 14.5 per cent, Macleods – 16 per cent, Intas – 13.4 per cent and USV – 19.1 per cent. Among the top 10, Lupin has moved up one rank for the month.
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While anti-infectives – the largest size and 17 per cent weightage – is flat, leading to lowering of growth rates, for the first time ever, the diabetes market is growing lower than the cardiac market, which is surprising as diabetes for most part of last several years has shown 5-10 GR percentage higher than cardiac GR. Another market that is virtually stagnant for the month is respiratory along with pain / analgesics. While anti-infectives, respiratory and pain/analgesics (including anti-pyretics) can have seasonal influence, the slowdown in cardiac and diabetes points to a definite lowering of mid-term growth forecasts for the Indian pharmaceutical market.
The first quarter of 2013 is a crucial period – wherein focus needs to be re-oriented into profitable rural penetration, higher detection and patient conversion into chronic therapies and improving compliance to drive the overall market growth by volumes. Despite one of the toughest quarters, nobody doubts the positive outlook of the IPM growth story.
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About PharmaTrac
PharmaTrac is a the secondary sales data audit conducted by AIOCD Pharmasofttech AWACS, a pharmaceutical market research company formed by All Indian Origin Chemists & Distributors (AIOCD ) in a joint venture with Trikaal Mediinfotech.
AWACS in AIOCD AWACS stands for Advanced Working, Action & Correction System – reflecting the underlying philosophy behind AIOCD AWACS’ research tools to reduce time to information by 50 per cent or more and to significantly improve on accuracy of information. Accurate and faster information flows from the market will help clients grow topline and bottom-line.
Terminologies used
MAT – Moving Annual Total
MTH – Month
Val (Cr) – Value in Crs
MS per cent – Market Share in Percentage
GR per cent – Growth in percentage
For more information, visit http://www.aiocd.net
